Gold Prices in H2 2025 are expected to trend upward and may even reach the psychological milestone of ₹1,00,000 per 10 grams, according to a new report from ICICI Bank Global Markets. This bullish projection comes despite a flattening in global price momentum and easing geopolitical tensions.
The Gold Prices in H2 2025 forecast is driven largely by robust investment-related demand in the Indian market and a mild depreciation in the Indian rupee (INR). In June, domestic gold prices rose by 0.6%, even as global trends showed stagnation.
Gold Prices in H2 2025 May Break Rs 1 Lakh Mark
The ICICI report outlines that Gold Prices in H2 2025 could rise from the current Rs 96,500–Rs 98,500 per 10 grams range to a new higher band of Rs 98,500–Rs 1,00,000. The psychological Rs 1 lakh level could be breached due to ongoing strong investor interest in the yellow metal.
“Local gold prices are expected to continue trading with an upside bias,” the ICICI report stated, emphasizing that Gold Prices in H2 2025 will remain on a steady growth path, largely unaffected by temporary global slowdowns.
Weak Jewellery Demand, But Strong Investment Interest
While Gold Prices in H2 2025 may rise, gold imports have dropped, reflecting reduced jewellery demand due to high prices. Gold imports stood at USD 2.5 billion in May, down from USD 3.1 billion in April.
However, investment demand remains strong. According to data from AMFI, net inflows into gold ETFs reached Rs 2.92 billion in May 2025—rebounding from two consecutive months of outflows. This indicates that investors are treating gold as a key asset amid global uncertainties.
Global Indicators Also Favor Gold Prices in H2 2025
Globally, gold-backed SPDR ETF holdings increased from 930 tonnes on June 1 to 948 tonnes on July 1. Speculative net long positions in gold also rose by 13,000 lots in the last month, showing rising optimism about Gold Prices in H2 2025 among investors.
Despite a lull in price growth in recent weeks, gold has still risen by 28% year-to-date in 2025, making it one of the top-performing assets globally.
Geopolitical Easing Limits Price Explosion
The report notes that a major factor limiting further price spikes is the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which has improved overall market sentiment. As a result, the safe-haven demand for gold has temporarily declined.
Additionally, global trade negotiations, especially those involving the United States, have reduced fears of a prolonged trade war. The US has already finalized deals with the UK and Vietnam and is in advanced talks with Japan, India, the EU, and China.
According to ICICI, the easing of these tensions will slow down the upward momentum, but Gold Prices in H2 2025 will still maintain a strong base thanks to sustained investment demand.
Trade and Risk Factors to Watch
Experts believe that the Gold Prices in H2 2025 will continue to rely on investment demand rather than traditional jewellery consumption. The report cautions that any sharp global macroeconomic event or sudden rupee volatility could accelerate price movements further.
If the anticipated US-China trade framework concludes successfully in August, it could support market stability but might also limit further gold rallies.
Gold Prices in H2 2025 to Remain Strong
The Gold Prices in H2 2025 outlook remains bullish, with the potential to hit Rs 1,00,000 per 10 grams driven by investment flows, stable global trade relations, and mild rupee depreciation. While jewellery demand is expected to remain subdued, ETF inflows and speculative interest continue to support the upward trajectory of gold.
Investors and traders should closely monitor rupee movements, global trade developments, and central bank policies, as all of these will be key influencers of Gold Prices in H2 2025.
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