Gold prices opened lower on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) on Tuesday, July 9, 2025, following a subdued global trend amid rising trade tensions and a firm US dollar. The decline came after former US President Donald Trump announced plans for sharp tariffs on imports from key trade partners like Japan and South Korea, sparking volatility in global markets.
Opening Rates on MCX: Gold Dips, Silver Gains
On Tuesday morning, the MCX gold August futures contract opened at ₹97,172 per 10 grams, marking a 0.1% decline from its previous close of ₹97,270. In contrast, silver futures opened 0.16% higher at ₹1,08,498 per kg compared to the previous close of ₹1,08,321.
As of 9:25 AM:
- MCX Gold was trading at ₹97,136, down by ₹134 or 0.14%
- MCX Silver was up by ₹81 or 0.07%, trading at ₹1,08,402
This mixed movement suggests cautious sentiment among investors amid a flurry of geopolitical and economic developments.
Global Market Impact: Trade Tariffs and Firm Dollar Cap Gold Gains
In the international bullion market, spot gold was steady at $3,334 per ounce, while US gold futures remained flat at $3,344.20. Despite uncertainties from Trump’s new trade moves, a firm US dollar and rising Treasury yields are capping the upside potential for gold.
Trump’s tariff announcement set a hard deadline of August 1 for imposing 25% tariffs on a wide range of goods from countries like Japan and South Korea. However, market anxiety eased slightly after he signed an executive order delaying the implementation by nearly four weeks, allowing room for diplomatic negotiations.
US Economic Indicators Adding Pressure
Adding to the bearish sentiment, the latest robust US jobs report for June beat expectations, reducing fears of a slowdown in the US economy. As a result, expectations for a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve have weakened, pushing gold prices further down.
Investors now await the minutes of the June FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, scheduled for release on Wednesday, to gain further clarity on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory.
Expert Analysis: Flat to Bearish Outlook for Gold
Jigar Trivedi (Reliance Securities)
According to Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities, the outlook for gold prices is flat to bearish. He notes that MCX Gold August futures have:
- Support at: ₹96,800 per 10 grams
- Resistance at: ₹97,300 per 10 grams
Trivedi believes that unless gold breaks above this resistance level decisively, the price action may remain subdued or even bearish in the short term.
Rahul Kalantri (Mehta Equities Ltd.)
Rahul Kalantri, Vice President (Commodities) at Mehta Equities, shared a broader technical range for both gold and silver:
Gold (Comex):
- Support: $3,315 – $3,295
- Resistance: $3,360 – $3,375
Silver (Comex):
- Support: $36.35 – $36.00
- Resistance: $37.00 – $37.25
MCX Gold:
- Support: ₹96,990 – ₹96,680
- Resistance: ₹97,710 – ₹98,180
MCX Silver:
- Support: ₹1,07,480 – ₹1,06,550
- Resistance: ₹1,08,950 – ₹1,09,700
These levels suggest that gold may face strong resistance near ₹98,000 unless a new geopolitical or economic trigger drives prices upward.
Investor Focus: Key Factors to Watch
1. US Tariff Implementation
Investors are closely monitoring developments related to Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs, especially if any new trade tensions escalate.
2. Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes
The upcoming FOMC minutes release on Wednesday could provide key insights into the Fed’s inflation control strategy and interest rate projections for the rest of 2025.
3. Dollar and Bond Yield Movements
A firm dollar index and rising 10-year US Treasury yields continue to discourage gold bulls, as these make gold less attractive compared to interest-bearing assets.
4. Physical Demand
Physical demand for gold in India remains modest due to high price levels nearing ₹97,000, though festive demand is expected to pick up in August and September.
Gold Price Outlook: What’s Next?
Given the current global and domestic cues, the short-term trend for MCX gold remains range-bound with a negative bias. Unless there is a clear breakout above the ₹97,700–₹98,000 resistance zone or a significant geopolitical disruption, prices are likely to stay within the established support and resistance levels.
Investors and traders should:
- Monitor the Fed’s tone in its policy outlook
- Track US economic data releases like CPI and PPI
- Watch for developments in the Asia-Pacific trade negotiations amid US tariff threats